Breaking News — Leading climate scientist James Hansen has forecast that 2026 will become the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing the previous record set in 2024. The prediction hinges on an expected El Niño event starting in the second half of this year, which Hansen says will push global temperatures to unprecedented levels.
“The combination of a strong El Niño and continued greenhouse gas emissions will push global temperatures to unprecedented levels,” Dr. James Hansen, former NASA climate scientist and current director of the Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions program at Columbia University, said in an exclusive interview. “This will make 2026 the hottest year on record, with extreme heat affecting nearly every region of the globe.”
The forecast comes as the world continues to experience record-breaking heatwaves, wildfires, and storms driven by climate change. Hansen’s team has analyzed long-term climate models and real-time ocean temperature data to reach this conclusion.
Background
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically lasts 9 to 12 months and can disrupt weather patterns globally, often leading to severe droughts, floods, and heatwaves. The last significant El Niño occurred in 2015-2016, which contributed to 2016 being the hottest year recorded at that time—until 2024 broke that record.
James Hansen is one of the most recognized voices in climate science, having testified before the U.S. Congress in 1988 about the dangers of global warming. His predictions are based on decades of research and a sophisticated understanding of ocean-atmosphere interactions. The scientist emphasizes that while natural variability plays a role, human-caused warming is the underlying factor making each successive record possible.
What This Means
If Hansen’s prediction holds, 2026 will bring even more intense heatwaves, droughts, and agricultural disruptions. Coastal communities may face accelerated sea-level rise, and ecosystems like coral reefs could suffer catastrophic bleaching. Public health systems must prepare for increased heat-related illnesses and deaths.
“This is a wake-up call for governments and policymakers,” Hansen added. “We cannot treat climate change as a distant problem. The impacts are here, and they are accelerating.” The forecast also underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid locking in even higher temperatures in future decades.
Experts urge immediate action on multiple fronts: transitioning to renewable energy, improving building efficiency, investing in climate adaptation, and phasing out fossil fuels. Even if El Niño fades, the underlying warming trend ensures each subsequent year is likely to challenge the previous record.
Read more in our Background section or explore What This Means for a deeper dive.
- Key impacts: Extreme weather, reduced crop yields, ecosystem stress.
- Urgent actions: Cut emissions, boost renewables, climate-proof infrastructure.