Overview
In the wake of the Iran conflict and the disruption of key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, many headlines have screamed about a global 'return to coal.' However, a thorough analysis by the energy thinktank Ember—shared exclusively with Carbon Brief—reveals that this anticipated surge is far more modest than popular narratives suggest. This tutorial dissects the facts, numbers, and expert opinions behind the 2026 coal situation. You'll learn why the predicted increase in coal-fired electricity generation is likely only 1.8% globally (a 'worst-case' scenario) and why structural decline in coal is still the dominant trend.
This guide is designed for energy analysts, policy makers, journalists, and anyone seeking a clear, data-driven understanding of coal's role in the current energy crisis. We'll walk through the key factors: the Iran gas disruption, country-specific responses, the role of clean energy, and common misconceptions. By the end, you'll be able to separate hype from reality and grasp the nuanced dynamics shaping global power generation in 2026.
Prerequisites
Before diving in, you should be familiar with:
- Basic energy terminology: Terms like LNG (liquefied natural gas), coal-fired generation, and baseload power.
- Global energy geography: Understanding that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for LNG shipments to Asia.
- Context of the Iran conflict: The US-Israeli attacks on Iran led to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting about 20% of global LNG trade (though a smaller share of overall gas supplies, as most gas is pipelined).
- Historical precedent: The Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 caused a brief spike in European coal use, which then fell to historic lows by 2025.
No specialized software needed—just a willingness to engage with data and challenge assumptions.
Step-by-Step Guide: Analyzing the 'Return to Coal' Narrative
Step 1: Understand the Trigger – The Iran Gas Disruption
The immediate cause for concern is the disruption of gas supplies from the Persian Gulf. After the conflict, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's liquified natural gas (LNG) normally transits. This primarily affects Asian countries reliant on LNG imports. The blockage means less available gas and higher prices, making coal a tempting alternative for some nations.
Key data point: The resulting gas price spike is less severe than some fear because most global gas moves via pipelines, not LNG tankers. Still, spot prices remain elevated above pre-conflict levels.
Step 2: Examine the Country-Level Announcements
At least eight countries have announced plans to increase coal use or delay coal phase-outs: Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany, and Italy. Many are major coal users. Let's look at specific examples:
- Japan and South Korea: Both have significant existing coal fleets and are turning to them to fill gaps in LNG supply.
- Philippines and Pakistan: These developing nations see coal as a cheap, available stopgap.
- Germany and Italy: In Europe, coal is being considered more as a backup to renewables, not a long-term shift.
However, the Ember analysis shows that the combined effect of these plans is a global rise of at most 1.8% in coal power output in 2026. This is a worst-case scenario; reality could be lower. Moreover, separate data indicates that as of early 2026, there has been no actual return to coal yet—the increases are still in planning stages.
Step 3: Consider Mitigating Factors – Decline Elsewhere and Slowing Demand
While some countries are boosting coal, others are cutting back. For instance, coal power in Europe and parts of North America continues its structural decline. Furthermore, global electricity demand growth could slow in 2026, reducing the need for new generation from any source. These factors could mean that coal generation actually falls overall, despite isolated increases.
Thinktank experts at Ember note that the 'big story' is not a coal comeback but the resilience of clean energy. During this fossil-fuel-driven crisis, renewables continue to be more appealing investments.
Step 4: Learn from History – The 2022 Ukraine Precedent
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many predicted a European coal surge. Gas supplies from Russia were disrupted, and coal did see a temporary spike. However, by 2025, EU coal use hit a historic low. The message: short-term disruptions can cause blips, but long-term structural decline is intact. The same dynamic is playing out in 2026—the Iran crisis is a blip, not a reversal.
Step 5: Recognize the Role of Clean Energy
Experts tell Carbon Brief that the focus on coal masks the bigger trend: clean-energy projects (wind, solar, storage) are becoming more economically attractive even during a gas price crisis. This is a key reason why coal's rise is limited. Many nations are using this crisis to accelerate renewable deployments, reducing future coal dependence.
Common Mistakes
- Mistake 1: Believing the hype of a 'massive return to coal.' The actual numbers (1.8% at most) are far from a global resurgence. Headlines often exaggerate isolated announcements.
- Mistake 2: Ignoring the decline elsewhere. Even as some countries ramp up coal, others are shutting down plants. Net effect is negligible or even negative.
- Mistake 3: Assuming all gas disruptions are equal. The Iran Strait of Hormuz blockage affects LNG only, which is a smaller share of global gas than pipelines. Pipeline gas from Russia to Europe remains largely unaffected in this scenario.
- Mistake 4: Overlooking clean energy investments. Many reports focus on coal plans but fail to mention simultaneous renewable expansion, which undermines coal's economic case.
- Mistake 5: Confusing announcements with action. Plans to increase coal use may not materialize due to regulatory hurdles, public opposition, or falling prices of alternatives.
Summary
The 2026 'return to coal' narrative is largely overblown. The Iran crisis did disrupt gas supplies, leading some countries to announce coal plans, but the net global increase is capped at 1.8% (worst-case). Factors like declining coal use elsewhere, slowing electricity demand, and the rising competitiveness of clean energy will likely keep coal in structural decline. The lesson: short-term geopolitical shocks can create bumps, but the energy transition's direction remains clear. For deeper analysis, revisit the Overview or the Step-by-Step Guide.