Trump and Xi Strike Energy Agreement Amid Iran War Crisis
Beijing, May 15, 2026 – The United States and China have reached a tentative energy agreement during two days of high-level talks in Beijing, with Trump administration officials proposing that China purchase more US oil to offset disruptions caused by the Iran war. Read more below.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the two nations discussed “China buying more US energy,” adding that production from Alaska would be a “natural” fit for Chinese demand. The South China Morning Post reported that Presidents Trump and Xi also agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to “support the free flow of energy,” a critical artery for global oil shipments.
The energy talks come as a separate but interconnected crisis unfolds: climate scientists warn that a “very strong” El Niño—potentially supercharged by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole—could amplify extreme weather globally in 2026.
‘Supercharged’ El Niño Threatens Record Extremes
There is an 82% chance of a “very strong” El Niño forming this year, according to an average of four weather forecasters cited by the Times. Climate Home News reports that scientists warn the pattern could “amplify climate extremes,” including wildfires, heatwaves and flooding.
The Independent added that the phenomenon could be “supercharged” by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, raising risks of fire and drought. Already, global fire outbreaks hit a “record high” in Africa, Asia and elsewhere from January to April, according to data compiled by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research group. More than 150 million hectares of land were damaged—20% more than the previous record—and conditions are expected to worsen if a strong El Niño “kicks in,” Reuters reported.
Background: Climate Cooperation vs. Energy Realpolitik
Ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily published an article stating that addressing climate change requires “coordinated efforts and cooperation” between the US and China. The state-run China Daily echoed that US-China cooperation on energy security and climate governance is “essential” because the two countries have “considerable influence over international institutions.”
However, an article in Legal Planet countered that the Trump-Xi meeting had “no climate agenda,” noting the two countries are now moving in “radically different directions.” This tension underscores the divergence between energy deals driven by war and longer-term climate goals.
What This Means
The US-China energy pact could temporarily stabilize oil markets and reduce the economic shock from the Iran conflict. But it also risks locking in fossil fuel dependence at a time when scientists call for rapid emissions cuts to avert the worst of the “supercharged” El Niño impacts.
Record wildfires across Africa and Asia are already straining resources and pushing global warming into uncharted territory. If the El Niño materializes with full force, 2026 could see the highest fire activity in recent history, threatening ecosystems and human health alike.
Around the World
- Ethiopia EVs: Electric vehicles now account for 8% of Ethiopia’s car fleet as soaring fuel prices and shortages push African nations toward cleaner transport, reports the Associated Press.
- UK Aid Cut: The UK has halved its latest contribution to the UN’s Green Climate Fund, shifting spending from development aid to military—making the UK no longer the top donor, according to Climate Home News and Carbon Brief.
This is a developing story. Follow Carbon Brief for updates.